Economists surprised at strong jobs report

Fed officials have said their decision will depend on the data, and they are looking in particular for substantial, sustainable progress in the job market."Today's data lift the possibility of a December start to the inevitable wind-down of large-scale asset purchases," said Alan Levenson,alligator shear chief economist at mutual fund giant T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. "Strength through the government shutdown period should boost this confidence, particularly if sustained into November."On Friday, the prospect of a stronger-than-believed economy and an earlier-than-expected reduction in Fed stimulus pushed up the benchmark 10-year bond yield, which tracks mortgage rates, by a hefty 0.15 percentage point to 2.75%.

The October jobs report was released Friday showing 200,000 new jobs created, much stronger than the 120,000 many had expected. Some expressed skepticism because the data gathering was disrupted by the government shutdown. If the numbers hold up,alligator shear the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve may be tapered sooner than later.In addition to the strong jobs report, the new numbers also revised upward the jobs numbers for August and September. "At first glance I think you say, 'shutdown, what shutdown?'" said Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com told Forbes, "We can only hope this pace of hiring continues to be seen in the fourth quarter, and we need to see a lot of ducks lined up in a row for that to happen."

"The largest gains were in hospitality," Forbes reported, "which rose by 53,000 in October, and retail, which rose by 44,000. Hamrick points out that the gains are largely in these sectors calls into question the quality of the overall growth."According to an ABC report, most economists expected far fewer jobs because of the government shutdown.Stephen Bronars,skin analyzer senior economist with Welch Consulting, told ABC he expected the unemployment rate could continue to fall, "but largely for the wrong reason.""As people continue to leave the labor force, rather than remain unemployed, the labor force participation rate is the lowest it's been in 35 years," Bronars said. "Some of this is due to the aging of the population, but participation should be increasing during a recovery as more people find work."

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